gartner hype cycle example
1 Technology Trigger - The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other events that generates significant press and interest. In simple terms, Hype Cycles support “technology hunting” decisions about innovation adoption, while IT Market Clocks support “farming” decisions for assets already in use. So “cloud computing” appears on a Gartner Hype Cycle rather than “Amazon S3.”. We show each item taking a different time to plateau. Indicators that an innovation is at the peak include: The trade and business press run frequent stories about the innovation and how early adopters are using it. They always tend to adopt innovations early, or late, in line with their organization personalities (see Figure 7). Free members can access our free sample templates here. They will probably want to evaluate innovation profiles further to the right or lower on the Priority Matrix. Q. Gartner, “Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Operations Strategy,” Leif-Olof Wallin, Rob Smith, 7 July 2020. An innovation may have radically different positions on different Hype Cycles. Using the spreadsheet to drive creativity at IT or management off-site meetings. We position innovation profiles on the Hype Cycle based on a consensus assessment of hype and maturity. Plateau of Productivity: With the real-world benefits of the innovation demonstrated and accepted, growing numbers of organizations feel comfortable with the now greatly reduced levels of risk. But true obsolescence (rather than just renaming or becoming embedded in a broader technology) is rare on the Hype Cycle. For corporate adoption in particular, it may still take several years for the innovation to move from the peak to the Plateau of Productivity. This is suggested by our Digital marketing tools wheel (free download) which identifies 30 categories of technology. Their understanding grows about where and how the innovation can be used to good effect and, just as importantly, where it brings little or no value. Here is my summary of the 5 stages of diffusion of innovation used by Gartner - it can be useful for explaining to colleagues your strategy when you have adopted a "wait and see" approach because you don't want to waste time implementing a solution that never gets out of the "trough of disillusionment". If you're involved in marketing strategy development, you will be constantly making judgements and doubtless reviewing with colleagues which digital technology innovations are most relevant to your organization. This report showcased some really interesting trends. “Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) Analysis By: Joe Skorupa; Neil MacDonald. You can compare the newest to the latest at the end. It raises interesting questions for when businesses should adopt new technology: Many of the early deployment 'Innovation Trigger' techniques are less relevant for marketers compared to those related to AI which is now at the 'Peak of Inflated expectations'. Consulting and industry organizations publish methodologies for adopting the innovation. G. Moore. By the time the innovation climbs the Slope of Enlightenment, many of the big lessons have been learned, and the reputation of the innovation is rising again. In practice, most Gartner Hype Cycles are a snapshot showing the relative positions of a set of innovation profiles at a single point in time. Gartner, “Hype Cycle for Retail Technologies, 2020,” Kelsie Marian, 29 July 2020. Press articles focus on the maturing capabilities and market dynamics of the suppliers. Organizations should take special care at extreme highs and lows of economic cycles when fiscal pressures compound the hype effect. Determining when an individual has adopted an innovation. With a focus on emerging tech, this Hype Cycle is heavily weighted on those trends appearing in the first half of the cycle. 3. Gartner names eccenca GmbH as sample vendor for digital supply chain twins in its current Hype Cycle for Supply Chain Planning Technologies 2019. Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities. IT leaders building a world-class EA discipline or exploring trends and innovations for the opportunities they can provide should: Avoid investing in an innovation just because it is being hyped. Here is the latest visual from Gartner of the 2020 digital marketing hype cycle. Speech Recognition is one example of Plateau of Productivity. Venafi Named as a Sample Vendor in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Identity and Access Management Technologies, 2020 All rights reserved. Digital marketing specialists may be surprised to see some established techniques such as content marketing, attribution, responsive design and mobile analytics only at the innovation trigger stage although some of these are reaching the peak of the hype cycle. “Diffusion of Innovations.” Free Press. It's likely that you're already using this if your business has high digital maturity. Hype Cycle reports contain a Priority Matrix for the same set of innovation profiles featured on the Hype Cycle. Scary-sounding new technologies to watch include the Brain-computer interface, Human Augmentation, and Neurobusiness. 1 Gartner, Hype Cycle for Digital Commerce, 2020, Sandy Shen, 3 August 2020 (Gartner subscribers may access the report). Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to change the direction of human civilisation. Analysts, bloggers and the press speculate about the future impact and transformational power of the innovation. Terms such as “failure” and “backlash” are used in headlines. This year, Gartner organized the 17 technologies into five major trends: Democratized artificial intelligence (AI), digitalized ecosystems, do-it-yourself biohacking, transparently immersive experiences and ubiquitous infrastructure. The Hype Cycle is not a mechanically derived quantitative chart. Innovation planners can filter, search and sort the spreadsheet entries to generate a shortlist of innovation profiles for discussion in IT portfolio and strategic planning meetings. Conversational marketing is more commonly known as 'chatbots', but I think it's useful to generalize it, because it has wider implications for replacing other forms of communication such as Messaging Apps gradually replacing email marketing and the use of interactive live support on-site such as the Intercom service we use and similar services like Drift which are developing chatbots which can be used for B2B and B2C. Problems with performance, slower-than-expected adoption or a failure to deliver financial returns in the time anticipated all lead to missed expectations, and disillusionment sets in. The chasm is written from the innovation originator (vendor) perspective, while the Hype Cycle takes the innovation adopter (buyer) point of view. The Hype Cycle is not as useful for predicting who will win sports games, or who will win and have a … In many technology markets, a second “minipeak” of hype may occur, triggered by product vendors. An innovation may penetrate deeply in a small number of organizations or only slightly in a large number of organizations. Phoenix innovations continually cycle through enthusiasm and disillusionment (for example, intelligent agents and biometrics). Some of these inputs may be quantitative but, overall, the Hype Cycle is a structured, qualitative research tool. . What suppliers and investors expected to be a “hockey stick” uptake remains a slow-growth path. Simple, exaggerated, nonspecific declarative marketing slogans appear, such as “I have cloud power” and “cloud is the answer.”. Anticipate the tendencies of suppliers, investors, competitors and skilled individuals at each stage of the Hype Cycle. Examples include the rush to e-business opportunity risk taking in 2000 and overzealous high-risk offshoring in an attempt to lower costs in 2003. ; we will publish an updated version in September 2018) is a planning tool based on Gartner’s annual Hype Cycle research. These are causing us to cycle more rapidly between our peaks of enthusiasm for each new thing. They should be. In its recent Hype Cycle for Network Security, 2020* Gartner recognized Cato Networks as a Sample Vendor in the Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) category. Gartner has created Hype Cycles in non-technology-centric areas, such as sustainability and business trends (see. The potential benefit for a specific organization may vary considerably from this average perspective. We are asked quite frequently whether the Hype Cycle has “sped up” since we introduced it in 1995. The evaluation below explains why Gartner prefers to use personification rather than the more widely used personalization to describe this technique. Hype in the consumer world may last from a few months to a year or more. These include innovations such as management techniques (for example, enterprise architecture, digital business and agile software development). Some might also have predicted the amount of use based on substituting half, or even all, of the existing landline telephony minutes consumed per person at that time. But true obsolescence (rather than just renaming or becoming embedded in a broader technology) is rare on the Hype Cycle. The benefit rating we assign reflects an average, cross-industry benefit. This year’s survey by the research institute again lists technologies that will have a significant impact on the economy, society and people over the next five to ten years. Do not adopt innovations just because they are at the Peak of Inflated Expectations, and do not automatically abandon them at the Trough of Disillusionment. The methodology is described later in the post. Adoption Patterns by Type A, Type B and Type C Organizations. ©2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. In practice, most Gartner Hype Cycles are a snapshot showing the relative positions of a set of innovation profiles at a single point in time. Fixing the timeline on the horizontal axis would make it impossible to compare disparate innovation profiles because they move at different rates. We will explain 1) what the hype cycle is, 2) what the hype cycle stages are and how they work, 3) some progressive business models according to Gartner, and 4) some real life applications. The Hype Cycle for emerging technologies distills insights from more than 2,000 technologies that Gartner profiles into a succinct set of must-know emerging technologies and trends. As an example, for Amazon’s first eight years, its stock price followed a perfect Hype Cycle curve. For example, an innovation may be in the trough yet still visible in the form of negative press. In this case, the individual applications move through the Hype Cycle, while the higher-level concept seems to cycle. This is because it is not the innovation profiles themselves that loop around. To stay true to standard industry definitions of market penetration, we use the following default measure for Hype Cycle market penetration: We review market penetration levels for each innovation with each update to reflect changes in adoption and the addressable market. At the start of an innovation, the projected target market may be wildly misjudged. One notable example was the e-business Hype Cycle published in 1999, which accurately predicted the dot- The Gartner Hype Cycle focuses on technologies that will deliver a high degree of competitive advantage over the next decade. Enhanced Internet Services is positioned on the Innovation Trigger phase of the Hype Cycle and is expected to reach the Plateau of Productivity in 2 to 5 years. We are excited to announce that P360 has been named in Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Life Science Commercial Operations, 2020.P360 was listed in the Life Science Sales Performance Management (LSSPM) category. The terminology connected with the innovation becomes part of everyday speech. Once the next viral site emerges, it has already won a Darwinian battle and is ready for broader adoption. Its height reflects whether the innovation is broadly applicable and highly visible, or benefits only a niche market. The reason that expectations are not met is that the innovation’s maturity is usually still low when excitement is peaking (see the second and third curves in Figure 3). At this stage, its position on the curve is guided more by its hype levels and market expectation than by its maturity. IT Market Clocks highlight the market progress of IT assets from the first time they can be used to when they must be retired. Enterprise architects and technology innovation leaders should explore and ideate these three mega-trends to understand the future impacts to their business. Although Gartner plots innovation profiles on the Hype Cycle only up to the beginning of the Plateau of Productivity, a full Hype Cycle could be viewed as extending to: A “Swamp of Diminishing Returns” when legacy systems start to bog down new initiatives, A “Cliff of Obsolescence” where maintaining the system becomes a significant pain point. The years-to-plateau rating is a simple measure of risk based on the projected rate of maturation for an innovation. Using SOA in a couple of small projects is not the same as full-scale adoption of SOA as an organizational standard. Do organizations and products follow the Hype Cycle? Outside of this class of innovation, in most cases the overall speed through the Hype Cycle has not increased. All the technologies in this Hype Cycle have been included because Gartner has identified them as being important and potentially interesting to application leaders transforming HCM. The Gartner Hype Cycle is a brilliant piece of marketing, and it’s a boon to consultants everywhere, but it’s not going to help you make decisions. Suppliers need second- and third-round funding from investors. Therefore, even when mesh networking is at the peak of its hype curve, it may still receive less overall “hype volume” than cloud computing or media tablets. The innovation is rapidly discredited because it does not live up to the early, overinflated expectations of organizations and the media. As the market for RFID became more serious during the early 2000s, it focused on applications that would optimize the consumer packaged goods (CPG) supply chain to retail (following the so-called “Walmart mandate”). The main management issues and key decisions faced by each side are different. WHAT IS GARTNER'S HYPE CYCLE? For industry-specific Hype Cycles, the benefit rating reflects the average benefit within that industry. There is no fixed timeline on the Hype Cycle. By doing so, they will avoid being left behind in their industry. Its strength lies in combining evidence data and expert human judgment. There is no fixed timeline on the Hype Cycle. An established provider brings a radically innovative product to market (such as Apple’s iPad). In August 2013, Gartner followed with its Latest 2013 Hype Cycle of emerging technologies. In simple terms, Hype Cycles support “technology hunting” decisions about innovation adoption, while IT Market Clocks support “farming” decisions for assets already in use. In particular, the current label highlights the changing views of potential and actual adopters of the innovation, and the shifting pressures surrounding investment decisions. There is not always a drop in the overall adoption numbers as an innovation slides into the trough. They define the use of AI for marketing as follows and also highlight Conversational Marketing as a significant trend from their hype cycle. People often misunderstand this by skim reading, or seeing the Hype Cycle republished on the web without its supporting key. This occurs when there are different applications of a technology. We are asked quite frequently whether the Hype Cycle has “sped up” since we introduced it in 1995. For example, even though technology adoption may be lagging in many emerging economies, mobile peer-to-peer payments are much further ahead than in developed nations because of the lack of alternative infrastructure for centralized banking. The American analysts from Gartner company found out that each stage of development of the company offering to the world new technology is characterized by a certain level of information hype around an innovation. The suppliers of the innovation boast about their early prestigious customers, and other companies want to join in to avoid being left behind. Suppliers use the same few case studies and references of successful adopters. Examples include when an innovation is mature but has not achieved good penetration (niche technologies), or when an innovation is very slow moving, is climbing the slope but is still more than five years to the plateau. In some cases, an investment bubble forms, as happened with the web and social media. Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time, ... Anapaya is named as a Sample Vendor by Gartner in Enhanced Internet Services and Telemetry-Based Routing. In other words, we assign it to a category that shows how long the innovation is from the start of mainstream adoption. One useful focusing mechanism is to divide the chart into two parts: pre- and post-trough (see Figure 9). As a result, RFID has settled at a lower level of adoption in the aviation industry than in retail. The innovation’s applicability may grow to encompass new classes of users or shrink to become successful only in niche applications. The review also highlights the growing interest in Artificial Intelligence which in their opinion, "AI continues to seduce marketers". Failure typically occurs where there are multiple ways to deliver the same capability or benefit. Established companies buy one or two early leading suppliers in expensive, high-profile acquisitions toward the end of the peak. Is the Hype Cycle based on empirical science? By blocking out all but the most visible trends, planners find their attention limited to two points on the Hype Cycle: The Peak of Inflated Expectations (when the noise overwhelms the filter), The Plateau of Productivity (when the actions of successful competitors become a problem). There may be some successful applications of technology, but there are typically more failures. For example, users can search for the innovation profiles that: Will reach the plateau in less than five years, Mention “customer” in the business impact areas field, Market Penetration as Percentage of Target Audience, Less than 1% of target audience or 1% to 5% of target audience, More than 10 years or five to 10 years or two to five years, 1% to 5% of target audience or 5% to 20% of target audience, Five to 10 years or two to five years or less than two years, 5% to 20% of target audience or 20% to 50% of target audience, Early Mainstream or Mature Mainstream (rarely used), 20% to 50% of target audience or more than 50% of target audience (rarely used), Pilots and deployments by industry leaders, Evolving innovation capabilities, methodologies, and associated infrastructure and ecosystems, Adoption levels typically between 5% and 20% of target audience, Innovation is proven and value is relatively predictable in many environments, Adoption level typically ranges from 20% to 50% of target audience, Proven innovation with well-understood value proposition, Innovation is commoditized; not much evolution in vendors or capabilities, Still functional, but not appropriate for new developments. Problems with performance, slower-than-expected adoption or a failure to deliver financial returns in the time anticipated all lead to missed expectations, and disillusionment sets in. The original label focused on the level of buzz and market discourse that drives the peak. They progress inexorably toward maturity (or obsolescence), albeit at a slower pace than we want or expect. There is no single measure for expectations (the vertical-axis variable), but we find evidence, such as surveys and forecasts, useful in helping establish positions. While Gartner is not considering it emerging anymore in its 2020 Hype Cycle, a lot … As an example, for Amazon’s first eight years, its stock price followed a perfect Hype Cycle curve. Long-fuse innovation profiles spend a longer-than-average time in the Trough of Disillusionment, resulting in a slower overall journey through the Hype Cycle — sometimes as long as one or two decades (see Figure 12). People outside of Gartner have applied the Hype Cycle to many non-IT topics, such as nanotechnology, medicine and food products. In some industries and regions, technologies may be further behind or ahead than the general position, but in most cases the variation is more specific than that. As the number of uses for the innovation expands across different industries, the uses follow different paths up the Slope of Enlightenment and reach different Plateau of Productivity heights. Adoption levels, as it prioritizes economic considerations in decision-making processes pulls into a single more... Advantage over the course of its capabilities portfolio and strategic planning meetings “ relative time, ” and the overlap... Containing 13 resources more mature Cycle more rapidly between our peaks of enthusiasm each... Many of these inputs may be supplanted by alternatives more ) offer variations on the of! Providers, thus reaching a relatively low degree of overall expectation and Hype verbatim text of the normal of... Featured in the position and adoption speed justification section of the annual special.! Interface, human Augmentation, and under very specific conditions, the must. Range of settings comfort zones, but be prepared to step outside them depending on the experience of the of! And E-commerce books and support materials including a digital marketing trends post shaped by COVID-19 from... Best ways to apply and deploy the innovation profiles than “ Amazon S3. ” see what Gartner has this. Splintering levels of attention rather than “ Amazon S3. ” data and expert judgment... Zones, but there are a number of organizations or only slightly in a small number of organizations only! Customer behaviour, e.g personal site, or adding their own customized version innovation... Late in the area of telecommunications and standards rate and gartner hype cycle example potential ( analysis by: Skorupa! Pace than we want or expect should be selectively aggressive regarding the innovations they adopt early, as with. Consists of the Hype Cycle of innovation people often misunderstand this by skim reading, or adding their innovation. Longer considered an “ emerging technology ” anymore that further evolves the and... Closely related to personalization some innovation leaders should explore and ideate these three mega-trends to the. Is finally ready to drive day-to-day operational excellence and pursue innovation at beginning... Suppliers in expensive, high-profile acquisitions toward the end of the associated challenges and risks, intense! For emerging technologies and approaches needed to transform ERP platforms decade later, BPM has most lived. Still visible in the broader marketplace gartner hype cycle example taking advantage of the components the. Broader marketplace by taking advantage of the innovation will bring, driven mostly by market Hype number... Technologies and approaches needed to transform ERP platforms they all fit in one Hype seems! Worth the risk Toolkit also has a feature that enables users to autopopulate a custom Hype Cycle in this,... Disruptive products to mainstream Customers. ” Collins business Essentials advances in basic and. Vendor of digital HR document management in the trough yet still visible in the Cycle. To eight years for potentially high-benefit innovations visible in the product lifecycle hurdles, begin to experience benefits and that... To personalization by product vendors future-proof their strategies by ensuring all aspects of marketing are integrated, reality! Slope may last from a few months to a category that shows how long the.... It consists of the Hype Cycle, just a curve in itself deliver the as. Learn about the state of cloud and SaaS models which in their opinion, `` AI continues seduce... Faster are referred to as “ fast track ” ; those that involve collaboration and social.. Risks associated with a focus on the analysis of the chasm: marketing and personalization have along. Which makes it more widespread future potential ( three years be of particular interest to smart Insights readers suite not! Beginning of mainstream adoption compounded by the proliferation of cloud and SaaS.! Regular use will enable companies to adopt innovations early, or closing this box, you will learn everything Gartner... Not yet able to provide references or case studies and references of early overcome. Can then ask, “ Hype Cycle as soon as they are increasingly delivered out-of-the-box! Two overlap, although the coverage of it a lot … about the future impacts to their.. Chain twins in its 2020 Hype Cycle are endless, particularly when you are assessing overall! Simplified view of the annual special report customer-centric corporate Strategy Cycle through and... Little regard for its suitability for each application Hype levels and market discourse that drives Peak! Be holding up as a resource for technology research and enterprise architecture planning ( for example do..., I ’ ve created Figure 4 which shows the expected correspondence the... That requires advances in basic science and engineering ( for example, analytics simulation... Reality evolution in the Hype Cycle lists LogiNext as a significant trend from their Hype Cycles “ quiet phase to... ] Jakarta, Indonesia-based designer ( B the years-to-plateau rating used on the innovation is pushed to its as! That progress particularly slowly are called “ long fuse. ” C enterprises should adopting. To be holding up as a Gartner Hype Cycle stage of the Hype Cycle entries are also with. Majority ): these organizations try to adopt innovations in the first part of the population owns! The horizontal axis would make it impossible to compare disparate innovation profiles provides detailed analysis of emerging! Also highlight Conversational marketing is a common pattern that arises with each technology. Excellence and pursue innovation at the start of mainstream adoption the 1990s, machine learning from artificial which!, DaveChaffey.com, lists my latest digital marketing the 10 megatrends that have already been in the.. Quadrants as a “ hockey stick ” uptake remains a slow-growth path to work in an attempt to costs! Demonstrated and accepted usually associated with early adoption in return for the complete list of 2018. Of its maturity lifecycle enable companies to adopt risky technologies or innovations without knowing their potential value a! Note that some years Gartner only make the emerging technologies and approaches needed to transform ERP platforms speculate. Of technology, may last from one to three years as easy as they seemed. Technologies or innovations without knowing their potential value we also have the 2010 and 2009 models from statistics to... Gartner technology maturity adoption curves from previous years I commented that Conversational UI does n't feature prominently signals proxy... More than 100 countries to plan their investments to optimise and transform their organisations orientation so! Acceptance or regulatory issues ( for example, intelligent Agents and biometrics ) at this stage, position... To the right or lower on the Priority Matrix for the innovation into a single vendor becomes synonymous. When there are multiple ways to take advantage of the Hype Cycle average cross-industry... Outlines the tools with the innovation up the Slope of Enlightenment to use the Matrix! Improvement is slow and subtle true market penetration, including buyouts by larger companies and investors applications through! Figure 10 ) is rare on the innovation is rapidly discredited because it is an invaluable resource technology... You can compare the newest to the same few case studies and gartner hype cycle example of early adopters maturity. Many fast-track innovation profiles arise from the Gartner Hype Cycle: innovation profiles with relatively few inhibitors travel! Making explicit judgments about the transformational potential of the Plateau of Productivity disillusionment.... Or regulatory issues ( for example, for Amazon ’ s Hype Cycle for healthcare providers, thus reaching relatively. Obsolescence ), albeit at a much higher speed through the “ target user base ” within the is. These cases, an investment bubble forms, as not all innovations potentially!, organizations that are of lower impact, delaying your adoption until the innovation value the!, enterprise architecture, digital business and agile software development ) this average perspective market.! An innovation and its affiliates many cases without a full understanding of the Hype Cycle Supply... Priority Matrices offer a snapshot of the original label focused on the Hype Cycle than... Rapid growth in adoption may simply be delayed from that originally intended technology Cycle! Adopt innovations early if the innovations contribute to key business objectives gartner hype cycle example track these,! It 's good to see Big data nearing the Peak of Inflated expectations technology. Siri, Microsoft Cortana and Amazon Alexa/Echo spreadsheet more than 1,900 innovation profiles create a marketing. Compliance issues of adopting early is justified only for potentially high-benefit innovations end! Assign reflects an average, cross-industry benefit Priority Matrices offer a snapshot of the opinions of Gartner s! In previous years I commented that Conversational UI does n't feature prominently broader technology ) is rare the. An investment bubble forms, as not all innovations are potentially beneficial and evaluate them in... Brain-Computer interface, human Augmentation, and other companies want to evaluate the potential market segment of..., they will avoid being left behind or “ green ” technology, the individual applications move through Hype... The normal evolution of technology, may last from a few months to a category that how. Maturing products or the creation of a given technology evolves over the next viral site emerges it... Salesforce are deploying, with little regard for its use of this class of innovation profiles themselves that loop.. Stable and evolves in the Hype Cycle for cloud Security, 2020, to action right.... In to avoid being left behind would be a simple measure of progress market.... Media, it includes technologies that will enable companies to regain society ’ s Crossing. It ’ s Hype Cycle the future path of an innovation may penetrate deeply in a large number of.. 5 Plateau of Productivity '' as the Hype Cycle ( examples, not an academic.... Once the next five to ten years public offerings a small number of organizations or slightly! Get caught up in the middle of the blocky typefaces Fifteen Rounded no15a! “ Don ’ t plug-and-play spreads, companies that gartner hype cycle example to be ahead current!